Snapshot
Leaderboard
Includes only polities with at least one rated event.
| Rank | Polity | Rating ± uncertainty | Last move | Events |
|---|
No active ratings at this date.
Comparative history, with the caveats visible
Follow military power across centuries.
Ratings update from recorded conflicts while keeping tactical performance, strategic outcomes, event scale, and source uncertainty distinct.
- Registry polities
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- Entities with Elo
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- Rated events
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- Staged source records
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Historical polity registry
Countries, empires, states, and regimes in the source catalog
Registry coverage is broader than the rating model. Unrated entries remain visible here but are excluded from Elo rankings and charts. Source-candidate intervals are claims awaiting identity review, not settled historical boundaries.
| Name | Era | Kind | Elo / identity status |
|---|
No registry entries match these filters.
Pinned
Rating history
Leaders through time
Lines show the leaders active in the viewed year, filled out with the all-time leaders by historical success, plus any pinned polities. Elo is held between rated events. Shaded envelopes show model uncertainty.
Viewing
No rated polity is active at this date. Pin a polity to keep its full history visible.
Momentum
Risers & fallers
Risers
Fallers
No rating movement in this window.
Uses the nearest prior rated point when event coverage is sparse.
Evidence trail
Events near —
Select an event to inspect its outcome class, weight, participants, and sources.
Confidence reflects source agreement and completeness
Select an event to inspect its evidence record.
How to read this
A rating is an evidence-conditioned estimate, not a timeless verdict.
New historical polities enter with a fresh prior. Tactical results, strategic results, conflict scale, stakes, and confidence affect updates separately; missing evidence widens uncertainty.